by SouthLondonDaddy » Mon Jan 23, 2023 7:31 pm
OP, the long and short of it is that I don't see how a buy to let in London can make any financial sense now.
Let me elaborate - starting with some simplifications and imprecisions to get to the gist of it.
1) Rental yields are so low that buy to let doesn't make a lot of sense vs other, safer alternatives. Simplifying, the return from a buy to let comes from a combination of: rental income, year after year, and capital gain/loss when you exit and sell the property.
Even with the rental increases of the last year, I understand that gross rental yields are between 3 and 4% in London. Rental yield = annual rental / value of the property. That is the gross yield: after you have deducted agency fees, rental voids, maintenance of the property, taxes etc the number will go down. Also, buying a property you will incur upfront costs like stamp duty, legal fees, refurbishment etc. So you may think that the gross rental yield might be 4% (= £20,000 rental on a £500k house) but the net figure can be (depending on lots of things, like your tax situation) more like, say 15,000 / 540,000 = 2.8% Too many people underestimate the costs and fail to appreciate the difference between gross and net rental yield.
Bear in mind that investing in gilts (ie lending money to the British government, super safe and no hassle) for 2-3 years can return 3.5% - 3.8%. The net return will depend on your tax situation (capital gains on gilts are not taxed, only interest), but, still, a risky investment like buy to let makes sense only if it returns much more than a super safe one.
Investing in buy to let might make sense if you are strongly convinced that the real estate market will boom in the long term; it may happen, it may not, no one has a crystal ball, but you must appreciate the risks if that's what you want to do. I.e. you take the view you won't make a lot in rental every year, but you will make a big capital gain when you sell.
2) The rates on buy to let mortgages are too high vs rental yields.
Adding debt to an investment amplifies the returns, if things go well, and amplifies the loss, if things don't go well. Obviously adding debt only makes sense if the cost of the debt < return without debt.
Let's say you have an investment where you invest 100 now and get 110 in 1 year. 10% return. Now let's say that you borrow 75 at 5%. After one year you will have: +110 - 75 (which you borrowed and must return) -3.75 (=5% x 75, the interest you were charged) = 31.25. You invested 25, not 100, so the return is 25% (=31.25/25-1). But if the investment returns 2%, and not 10%, then the return after the debt is -7%. Debt can amplify both your losses and your gains.
Rental yields are between 3 and 4%. Buy to let mortgage rates are between 4 and 6%. I don't see this making a lot of sense.
Obviously all of this is before getting into the detail of buying in your name vs in a limited company and all the tax details.
OP, the long and short of it is that I don't see how a buy to let in London can make any financial sense now.
Let me elaborate - starting with some simplifications and imprecisions to get to the gist of it.
1)[b] Rental yields are so low that buy to let doesn't make a lot of sense vs other, safer alternatives.[/b] Simplifying, the return from a buy to let comes from a combination of: rental income, year after year, and capital gain/loss when you exit and sell the property.
Even with the rental increases of the last year, I understand that gross rental yields are between 3 and 4% in London. Rental yield = annual rental / value of the property. That is the [b]gross [/b]yield: after you have deducted agency fees, rental voids, maintenance of the property, taxes etc the number will go down. Also, buying a property you will incur upfront costs like stamp duty, legal fees, refurbishment etc. So you may think that the gross rental yield might be 4% (= £20,000 rental on a £500k house) but the net figure can be (depending on lots of things, like your tax situation) more like, say 15,000 / 540,000 = 2.8% [b]Too many people underestimate the costs and fail to appreciate the difference between gross and net rental yield.[/b]
Bear in mind that [b]investing in gilts (ie lending money to the British government, super safe and no hassle) for 2-3 years can return 3.5% - 3.8%.[/b] The net return will depend on your tax situation (capital gains on gilts are not taxed, only interest), but, still, a risky investment like buy to let makes sense only if it returns much more than a super safe one.
[b]Investing in buy to let might make sense if you are strongly convinced that the real estate market will boom in the long term;[/b] it may happen, it may not, no one has a crystal ball, but you must appreciate the risks if that's what you want to do. I.e. you take the view you won't make a lot in rental every year, but you will make a big capital gain when you sell.
2) [b]The rates on buy to let mortgages are too high vs rental yields.[/b]
Adding debt to an investment amplifies the returns, if things go well, and amplifies the loss, if things don't go well. Obviously adding debt only makes sense if the cost of the debt < return without debt.
Let's say you have an investment where you invest 100 now and get 110 in 1 year. 10% return. Now let's say that you borrow 75 at 5%. After one year you will have: +110 - 75 (which you borrowed and must return) -3.75 (=5% x 75, the interest you were charged) = 31.25. You invested 25, not 100, so the return is 25% (=31.25/25-1). But if the investment returns 2%, and not 10%, then the return after the debt is -7%. Debt can amplify both your losses and your gains.
[b]Rental yields are between 3 and 4%. Buy to let mortgage rates are between 4 and 6%. I don't see this making a lot of sense.[/b]
Obviously all of this is before getting into the detail of buying in your name vs in a limited company and all the tax details.