For anyone still reading I just spotted 3 key points in this most recent Council Paper on Provision of Places!
Paper 10-846 was presented to the Education Committee on 16Nov10 and
has their most up-to-date projections.
http://www.wandsworth.gov.uk/moderngov/ ... x?ID=12232
Here the map of Planning Areas they use
http://www.wandsworth.gov.uk/moderngov/ ... x?ID=12233
1) Points 28-32 indicate that based on their projections
the council
believe the Alderbrook expansion will be sufficient to deal with the small number of places that may possibly be needed in Balham ward (and also in neighbouring Bedford ward in PA4A).
So this is very interesting for the South of Broomwood Rd demand
(certainly in terms of the council's standard approach to estimating it)
2) BUT then for the huge planning area PA5. the paper states:
"PA 5 (Latchmere, Queenstown, St Mary’s Park & Shaftesbury Wards)
33. There is presently an overall surplus in this area, but it is
anticipated that this will reduce in time and
there could be pressure
on reception places in 2012/13.
There are large housing developments, including Nine Elms, planned in this area. Potential child yield from these developments are only included in the current projections in respect of early development from around 2016 onwards.
In the longer term, a new primary school is likely to be needed in this area."
3) Appendix 3 actually gives the reception place projections by Planning Area
http://www.wandsworth.gov.uk/moderngov/ ... x?ID=12235
Given the point above on how the council are looking a PA4A and PA4B
together for 2011/12 there's a projected 17 place deficit
BUT that's WITHOUT the Alderbrook expansion. If that goes ahead then once those 30 are added that's:
For PA 4A plus PA 4B:
2011/12: 13 place surplus
2012/13: 2 place deficit
2013/14: 5 place deficit
2014/15: 4 place surplus
2015/16: 14 place surplus
2015/16: 22 place surplus
In PA5 we have these projected numbers:
2011/12: 8 surplus
2012/13: 4 place deficit
2013/14: 14 place deficit
2014/15: 16 place deficit
2015/16: 14 place deficit
2016/17: 15 place deficit
Of course by the time we get there the numbers will be quite
different, but given how much they stand by the projection model I think this is quite outrageous stuff again from the Council,
as these current projections i.e. THE COUNCIL'S OWN NUMBERS - actively support a local admission of say 15 places to Forthbridge places phased-in from if not 2012/13, then 2013/14
I am once again at a complete loss to understand why a local admission was not suggested as part of the proposals