CROSSRAIL 2 VENTILATION SHAFT (AGAIN) Post Reply

[mumof2balham]

to UK RAIL BLOG

I was looking forward to your analysis...
It is interesting but as a daily user of the Northern Line from Clapham South for the last 10 years, I think it is very BIASED and misleading.
People who read your blog and are not frequent N. Line users may be blinded by your biased data and take it at face value...

For example, why would someone bother going via Angel to go to Bank?!
Taking C2 to Tottenham CR and change for the Central Line to Bank would be much quicker (in addition to be a nicer journey).

Your conclusion is:
"1) No one already on a Northern Line train approaching Balham and heading to London Bridge, the City or Canary Wharf will change onto Crossrail 2.

2) Anyone on a Crossrail 2 train from Wimbledon and heading to London Bridge, or the south part of the City will change onto the Northern Line. "

Very biased and unbalanced..Reading your conclusion, I wonder whether you have ever needed to commute on the Northern Line between 730 and 845am: do you actually think no one would swap an extra couple of minutes to avoid the chaos and cattle class experience?
Also do you really think people just jump on a Northern line train without having to wait long and stressful minutes on the platform (and why are you not even adding these minutes to your data? some days it can be 10mns wait)
..not even mentioning the few journeys where C2 would be actually be quicker

Obviously at a dead time such as 11am, since I know I would get a Northern Line train straightaway and have a seat I would not bother taking another route/option, but how often does that happen to me or to the bulk of the commuters?

The Northern Line is close to unbearable and to a lot of people is the only drawback in leaving in Clapham/Balham, anything that can offer other options is a big plus. The problem with this line is that there are no other options to go into the City at the moment and people just pack in from Morden and only once the train gets to L. Bridge some sort of movement starts happening in the carriage (so you can wipe your face or blow your nose...)

[mumof2balham]

.....and for a commuter already on a C2 train, you would have to be pretty masochist to want to get off at Balham and try and battle your way on a Northern line train at rush hour..
outside of rush hour, I see why one would change to the N. Line but then it is not the issue at stake here (no crowd issue then)...

[Cloud]

As a Tooting resident, let me just state for the record that not everyone in Tooting is enamoured with the proposals. Just as Balham residents are trying to push the Crossrail station back to Tooting for various reasons (including the value of house prices in Balham), surprise surprise, many people in Tooting are not that enthusiastic about the works and disruption that will be caused during the construction phase.

I take issue with the way the Save Wandsworth Common campaign is worded. To me it looks like it is trying to push the problems of one community onto another community, with the justification that the Tooting residents want Crossrail because of the regeneration benefits.

For the same reasons as people are objecting to the station at Balham, many people I have spoken to in Tooting are very concerned about the Tooting proposals - there are also several schools in Tooting in close proximity to Tooting Broadway, the traffic in that area is very bad at drop off and pick up and the air quality is not great. The proposals will of course make that much worse. Please don't assume that Tooting wants the new station - it has its pros and cons but the situation is not black and white. Yes, regeneration of the area would be great but it is already on its way up and there must be other ways of achieving that. Plus, as stated by HighTreesHouse, the Tooting proposal involves residential housetake. Yes, that means HOUSES/FLATS BEING KNOCKED DOWN!

I am also against Wandsworth common being affected, but I haven't seen any concrete evidence of a guarantee that the Tooting proposal wouldn't affect Wandsworth Common.

I certainly won't be signing the petition against the Balham proposal as currently worded as it is not constructive and doesn't address any problems or issues that Tooting residents may have.

[ukrailblog]

Hi mumof2balham, thanks for reading my analysis. I certainly don't envy a commute from Clapham South on the Northern Line - my time on the Northern was from a station a lot further south.

"why would someone bother going via Angel to go to Bank?! Taking C2 to Tottenham CR and change for the Central Line to Bank would be much quicker (in addition to be a nicer journey)."

The analysis I've performed is a deliberately simple approach, that tries to find the shortest routes between two places with CR2 open. Since Balham to Bank via Angel is possible, the computer program calculated a result. Would anyone use that route, probably not, but the program was providing options, not making decisions. I'd also note that the quote above assumes that the Central Line has lots of available space in rush hour.

For the record, it is my opinion that TfL should be providing this data to the public, not me. (They have far more sophisticated tools available than I do.)

Of the two conclusions, the first is self-evident really. "No one already on a Northern Line train approaching Balham and heading to London Bridge, the City or Canary Wharf will change onto Crossrail 2. " All this says is that for anyone going to London Bridge or Bank that boarded the Northern Line at Morden, South Wimbledon, Colliers Wood or Tooting, they are already on a train going exactly where they need to go. Changing onto CR2 and then changing again seems highly unlikely (some of those people will even have seats!).

The second conclusion is more contentious. "Anyone on a Crossrail 2 train from Wimbledon and heading to London Bridge, or the south part of the City will change onto the Northern Line." As you say, whether this is true or not depends on whether people getting off CR2 can actually get on a Northern Line train.

The key point here is that my analysis is attempting to challenge a claim made by TfL. They claim that CR2 at Balham will reduce crowding levels on the Northern Line by 1.2 people per square metre (crush crowding is around 4-5 people per square metre, so thats about 25% less standing commuters per train). Logically, if TfL are right, then there will be space for people to transfer off CR2 and onto the first train on the Northern Line at Balham. And for London Bridge, the Northern is definitely the best option. For Bank, there will be a choice of changing to the Central Line, but is that better? The numbers say that Wimbledon to Bank is 25-27mins changing to the Northern or 28-30mins changing to the Central Line. Will people trade 3mins to avoid the Northern? Will the Central Line have any more space available than the Northern? These are the really tough questions.

What concerns me most is that journeys that CR2 should relieve, such as Morden to Victoria or Euston, get very little journey time savings (eg 2-3 mins). This raises the possibility that those journeys may continue to clog up the Northern Line. As you say, some people will decide to change to CR2 because it will have more space, and trade a few minutes for more space. But how many?

The Northern Line desperately needs relief. But I hope I've also explained how even with TfL's claimed 1.2 people per square metre relief, it is not exactly going to make the Northern Line pleasant. Ultimately, it is up to TfL to justify their claimed relief, not me.

[pie81]

Ultimately, it is up to TfL to justify their claimed relief, not me.

Exactly. TfL is claiming a 30% reduction in northern line crowding. That is the ONLY justification given for the great extra expense and disruption created by adding either the balham or tooting diversions. Therefore, they need to back up the 30% claim.

I have seen no evidence of any research behind this figure. Have they done surveys asking commuters if they would switch - including whether they would choose a more indirect journey to avoid the northern line? And have they considered whether those coming from further out would then switch to the northern, using up all the newly freed up space?

[mumof2balham]

yes, this is where we agree (summarized in previous post).
Given the amounts/hours spent on the project they should offer detailed data.
just on your 2 points:
"Will people trade 3mins to avoid the Northern? Will the Central Line have any more space available than the Northern? These are the really tough questions."
Not really sure these are " tough "questions:
Having used the Northern for too long and before that the Central in my daily commute, I can genuinely say that:
- yes I would trade 3mns to avoid the Northern (and 3mns is the time it can take between Clapham South and Clapham Common in the morning, while it says 1.5mns on paper, as trains are back to back)
- yes, the Central line is busy BUT there is a lot of movements (getting off/getting on) which makes it easier as a commuter (rather than all piling in going North) and trains are more frequent
just my experience...

[ukrailblog]

I know of no public data justifying TfL's claim of Northern Line relief. However, such data will exist as TfL do extensive computer modelling on topics like that. I doubt there will have been surveys however.

To mumof2balham, just to note that by the time CR2 opens, both the Central Line and Northern Line are likely to be running at 36tph, which is pretty much the maximum possible. If that frequency is not enough to shift the demand in the next 15 years, then it is likely that TfL will be forced to close some of the Clapham stations northbound in the peak.

[Boobelle]

Hi Cloud,

Please check
http://www.tootingonline.com/forum/toot ... l#post8613

some interesting points

[Boobelle]

I would urge anyone to attend CR2 meetings, some very important questions asked and points risen...
Loads of strong feelings against Wandsworth Common shaft and overwhelming support for Tooting and regeneration.

[Boobelle]

Sorry, another link, but this is a summary of the last night's meeting in Wansworth Hall:
https://twitter.com/tootingonline/statu ... 7216095232

[Cloud]

Thanks Boobelle, I had seen the Tooting online forum previously and the comments posted there. An online forum isn't necessarily representative of everyone's views. (Yes, it would be good to have better transport links to St George's but frankly we already have the Northern Line and Tooting railway station on a separate site, and I don't think having a station at Balham would make much difference for people coming from far out as they would just have to change to the Northern line and travel two stops south.)

As I said in my previous post, it feels like the 'regeneration' aspect is being used as an excuse by the people opposing the Balham station for the proposal to revert to Tooting. And as I say, I can only report back anecdotally on conversations had in the school playground, local shops etc but there is a large contingent in Tooting who are nervous and worried about the prospect of a massive construction site halting traffic and possibly affecting our children's and families' quality of life.

[Cloud]

Thanks for the summary, that's really useful. As a parent of small children, the timing of the event was difficult for me but it's useful to have a summary.

Also having seen the summary of the meeting it doesn't seem like Tooting residents are having their say at all, and that the majority of attendees were people that Dan Watkins from the conservative party had been in touch with from the Bolingbroke grove area opposing the shaft at Wandsworth common. I have responded to the consultation myself but didn't say anything about Tooting because that was not a question directly posed (it just asked questions about Balham).

So I think that the information being given out is misleading and the opinions being canvassed aren't representative.

[kaboodle]

Apologies if this has already been posted, the two links I have seen on this thread are imperative and the proper channels to be used while voting.
You can also vote your opinion here
www.balhamortooting.org.uk
Dan Watkins made up this survey to show Tfl and the majority of Tooting residents have voted for it to take place in Tooting. (90% of people who voted) according to the Wandsworth Guardian.

[kaboodle]

I am truly shocked to see only 644 people have voted on the Wandsworth democracy link! We only have until January, please spread the word.

[Goldhawk]

The epetition link wants no shaft on the common and wants Tooting instead of Balham

I won't sign as I'm undecided on Tooting vs Balham - I need more info first

Happy to sign a petition against a shaft on the common but I won't be signing this one

https://democracy.wandsworth.gov.uk/mgE ... ID=7803064

Dan Watkins survey is all well and good but he's pro Tooting so not unbiased