General election - vote for staying in EU? Post Reply

[papinian]

Actually the Lib Dems have tried really hard to get some balance amongst their members in recent years, including many all-female shortlists. Don't think this area is representative of what they are doing overall. Your post made me realise how many women MPs we have in SW London though.

There are other women MPs in SW London - Siobhain McDonagh in Mitcham & Morden; ‎Helen Hayes‎ in Dulwich & West Norwood, both Labour. The LibDems have a very poor record of electing women MPs.

It's so important for women MPs to be elected. Look at the contributions that Theresa May, Priti Patel, Theresa Villiers, Andrea Leadsom have made. More women MPs over the past seven years has made a significant and valuable contribution to British politics and life.

[storm35]

Maybe this link might be useful regarding Tim Farron's goal to have 50% female MPs. As I mentioned, Sarah Olney is now in Richmond and Jackie Pearcy was chosen to go for the Manchester Gorton seat (I am assuming that by-election is not going ahead anymore with the GE coming). I think they are indeed trying as headshrinker says. I dont think thats an issue.

http://www.libdems.org.uk/how-we-will-elect-diverse-mps

[papinian]

Maybe this link might be useful regarding Tim Farron's goal to have 50% female MPs. As I mentioned, Sarah Olney is now in Richmond and Jackie Pearcy was chosen to go for the Manchester Gorton seat (I am assuming that by-election is not going ahead anymore with the GE coming). I think they are indeed trying as headshrinker says. I dont think thats an issue.

http://www.libdems.org.uk/how-we-will-elect-diverse-mps

Talk is cheap. The LibDems have a very poor record on women MPs and on ethnic minorities. They have only ever had one ethnic minority MP elected and that was for only one year. Given that there have been over 110 LibDem MPs elected during the party's existence that's really not good enough.

Who are the LibDems putting up in Wandsworth for this election - three white English men? Who are they putting up in Lambeth for this election - two white English men and one white English woman?

Does that represent the diversity of Wandsworth and Lambeth? I don't think so.

[oab]

The problem with the Lib Dems in Nappy Valley is that there is such a huge gap between them and the conservatives (see headshrinker's numbers from 2015) that voting for them is likely to be a lost vote...

Tactical voting sources (there is now a website, https://www.tactical2017.com/) say that in order to keep the Tories out:
- Battersea needs to vote Labour
- Wimbledon needs to vote Labour or Lim Dem - TBC
- Putney needs to vote Labour
- Streatham needs to vote Labour
- Tooting needs to vote Labour

[juliantenniscoach]

Yes that may well be true. However going back to the post, voting for staying in the EU, voting for Labour isn't going to help. Surely the penny has dropped with everyone that Corbyn is a silent Brexiteer? The Labour Party policy on the issue is very subtle because there is such a massive divide within the party.

So if your primary reason for voting is the issue of the EU then the Lib-Dems are the only party promising specific, definitive action. However if you have other concerns over riding Brexit, for voting in the election then your default position applies.

[oab]

juliantenniscoach, I see your point, voting for staying in the EU is actually quite difficult if you are in nappy valley (except maybe Wimbledon where the lib dems seem to have more support).
You are of course right, Labour's stand on Brexit is confused. But I'd say they they'd be better at opposing Hard Brexi than Jane Ellison, who will have to stick with the party line. Plus there is a chance that Corbyn is replaced after losing the elections.

[EarlsfieldDad23]

I'm was a Remainer too and agree that the outcome was pretty tough to take. Sometimes I wish we could turn the clock but I guess ultimately it's happening now and we should get on with it the best we can..

I think the Tories are most likely to be able to steer things as lets face it Labour are a complete mess and the Lib Dems just don't have enough support or any real experience of governing.

Also the Conservative candidate in Tooting, Dan Watkins I think is his name, is a really nice guy. Lived in the area for ages, young family and employs people locally too. He was a remainer as well and has done loads of stuff for the community. I've only heard good things about him.

[papinian]

Also the Conservative candidate in Tooting, Dan Watkins I think is his name, is a really nice guy. Lived in the area for ages, young family and employs people locally too. He was a remainer as well and has done loads of stuff for the community. I've only heard good things about him.

A first time poster. Are you Dan Watkins?

Remember, Dan Watkins liked a comment on Facebook saying that Sadiq Khan had never done anything for "English people" in Tooting, and then lied when he got called out about it. Full thread here:
http://www.nappyvalleynet.com/mums/view ... 95#p140695

[ukrailblog]

These are the numbers for 2015 (from Headshrinker):

Battersea: CONSERVATIVE 26,730, Labour 18,792, Lib Dem 2,241
Wimbledon: CONSERVATIVE 25,225, Labour 12,600, Lib Dem 6,129
Putney: CONSERVATIVE 23,018, Labour 12,838, Lib Dem 2,717
Streatham: LABOUR 26,474, Conservative 12,540, Lib Dem 4,491
Tooting (from 2016): LABOUR 17,894, Conservative 11,537, Lib Dem 820

But these are the numbers from 2010:

Battersea: CONSERVATIVE 23,103, Labour 17,126, Lib Dem 7,176
Wimbledon: CONSERVATIVE 23,257, Lib Dem 11,849, Labour 10,550
Putney: CONSERVATIVE 21,223, Labour 11,170, Lib Dem 6,907
Streatham: LABOUR 20,037, Lib Dem 16,778, Conservative 8,578
Tooting: LABOUR 22,038, Conservative 19,514, Lib Dem 7,509

As can be seen, 2015 was a historic low for the Lib Dems. Notably in Streatham they even ran Labour close, and in Wimbledon they also beat Labour to second.

Ultimately though, this is not a normal general election, and normal rules don't apply. Labour is abnormally weak (very few prospective MPs support Corbyn) and have no sensible position on the EU, while the Lib Dems are still recovering from virtual wipeout yet are the only ones who are clearly pro EU.

Finally, the opinion polls have always been good at predicting Labour vs Conservative and less good at predicting the influence of the Lib Dems. See the last election, where the opinion polls missed the disappearance of the Lib Dem vote in the South West that gave Cameron his majority government.

Thus, we can reasonably use the opinion polls to conclude that almost nowhere will see the Labour vote increase (it should decrease almost everywhere if the polls are right). But based on the historic evidence of polling success/failure, we simply can't use the polls in the same way to predict what the Lib Dem vote will do (a few % increase nationally could mean nothing, or that extra support could be very focussed and thus return Lib Dem MPs, the polls just can't tell us that).

In summary, past voting history in a constituency is probably not as good a guide to the result this time as it normally is.

[oab]

ukrailblog - interesting numbers, so in 2015 lots of lib dem voters voted tory. I wonder where those "swing" votes will go this year..

EarlsfieldDad23 - yeah, are you Dan Watkins?! In which case ...you have a really tough job as Rosena Allin-Khan seems very good (she defied the party whip to vote against triggering article 50, in line with the Remain vote in her constituency).
I don't think anyone on this thread is proposing to vote Labour in order to bring Corbyn to power, but in order to have more opposition to the Hard Brexit proposed by the tories.

[EarlsfieldDad23]

Haha no and i'm not sure even politicians are that slippery! I think this seems to be about Brexit and most Tories voted remain but have had to reluctantly back the result as not doing so would have caused a revolt! Tories and Labour both say we have to leave but Tory front bench more experienced to deliver good for country as Corbyn and his lot a shambles. The thing I don't understand about Allin-Khan is if she voted against Article 50 then she was voting against her party and presumably she wants a second referendum? But she won't say so... seems a bit of a ploy to get support.

[astro]

I'm planning on voting Lib Dem, my (very Tory) husband is considering voting Lib Dem, at a wedding last weekend 3 out of the 8 people we were seated with had recently joined the Lib Dem party. Of course they're not going to win overall but you never know what will happen on a local level and for me it is important to send a message that the referendum result does not mean that a Hard Brexit is what the people want. Voting for the Tory's mean that you in essence support their stance to date and I don't.

[Denwand]

Voting Liberal Democrats will be a gesture but I understand why people want to "send a message".

In reality it will not make a difference at all. The LDs announced 67,500 new members joining since their embarrassing routing in the 2015 election.

That's only roughly 104 new Lib Dem members per UK Parliamentary constituency.

In Battersea, for instance, that would increase the LD vote from 4.4% to a heady 4.6%.

They will still loose their deposit if that was the case.

[storm35]

You dont have to be a member of a party to vote for them. As ukrailblog wrote, Battersea Lib Dem lost 5,000 voters in the last election, Tories gaining 4k. With the current Brexit feeling in our 75% Remain borough, and Lib Dem being the only outspoken pro European party of the biggest three, suppose lots of those 5k were Remainers and go back along with ex-Tory voters including myself, astro and others (I also know of several people who are going LD). That will already put the Tories just a couple of thousand ahead of Labour. I'm not saying LD will win either but I'm not going to go along with the Tories and a hard Brexit just because Lib Dem may be considered a lost vote. I like to think they could actually be challenged

[Denwand]

Of course.

I was just reflecting that the Lib Dem revival and putting their increase in membership in perspective.

It's all they can hope for in being the receptacle for protest votes (which they have been for the last 80 years or so) and I can understand why people do it.

"I like to think they could actually be challenged " ...or have their opinions ignored, which is also the historical Liberal's position!