General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

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denshort
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General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby denshort » Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:47 pm

Given Labour only just snuck in in 2017 ousting the long standing conservatives?

We're also a pretty staunchly remain constituency so could the lib dems get in?

Or is a vote for the lib dems a wasted vote?

What do we think would be worse, a Corbyn government or a potential no deal Brexit?

I may just close my eyes and go for it!
 
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Denwand
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby Denwand » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:24 pm

It will certainly be interesting in Battersea

There's no doubt in my mind that  Marsha De Cordova only got in because the Tories Jane Ellison was  a Brexit supporter in a highly remain constituency.

Since then Ms De Cordova has given a fairly low-wattage performance disappointing most of her Remain voters and seems to toe the Corbyn line so no shoe-in for her on the 12th!

Since I can't see the strongly remain voter voting for Boris I think the Lib-Dems have a strong chance of getting in.

The same thing applies in Tooting where Dr Rosena is a popular MP saddled with the useless "Brexit and Remain" Corbyn - could go Lib-Dem as well ...and when you remember that Wandsworth as a borough voted Libn-Dems 36,012 votes as opposed to Labour geting much less than half of that  - 15,487 votes it seems we may well have a Lib-Dem MP in both Battersea and Wandsworth!

Well they get my vote anyway! :D  
Last edited by Denwand on Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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chorister
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby chorister » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:42 pm

Actually Jane Ellison was a Remainer who decided that she had to respect the referendum result.
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Denwand
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby Denwand » Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:14 pm

chorister wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:42 pm
Actually Jane Ellison was a Remainer who decided that she had to respect the referendum result.

Oh didn't realise that - I was judging her position on the number and tone of the barbed messages aimed at her! - Thanks!  :D
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BFW
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby BFW » Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:01 am

Agree with the Marsha de Cordova "low wattage performance" comment ! I think we probably all know that she only won because it was an anti Brexit vote.  I feel for Jane Ellison who was actually an active / visible MP who in my experience responded to e mails and helped with local issues.

I cannot bring myself to vote for a party lead by Jeremy Corbyn and won't be voting conservative ever (and I mean EVER) again in my life.

Therefore the only remaining (excuse the pun) option for me is to vote LibDems.

 
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schoolsearching
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby schoolsearching » Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:26 pm

My electoral calculus suggests that a vote for Lib Dem is essentially a vote for Labour. My reasoning is as follows: There are c. 77k registered voters in Battersea and during the last two elections (2015 and 2017) there were 51k and 55k votes cast, respectively. In 2015 there were 26.7k votes for Conservatives, 18.8k votes for Labour and only 2.2k votes for the Lib Dems.  In 2017, there were 25.3k votes for Labour, 22.8k for Conservatives and 4.4k for the Lib Dems. In order for Lib Dems to take Battersea, they need c. 20k voters to swing their way. This is 40% of the c. 50k people who typically turn up to vote. If you assume that the incremental votes for Labour and Lib Dem in 2017 were "remain" votes and that they will all be cast for the Lib Dems in 2019,  this only equates to c. 7k (Labour) + 2k Lib Dem or 9k in total. Therefore, I don't think the Lib Dems are going to get first past the post.  Given the above, I am going to take a large shot of vodka before heading to the polls and will cast my vote for the blond buffoon. If anyone has reasonable evidence that the Lib Dems could take Battersea (based on recent polls or better knowledge of my calculations above) please let me know.


 
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daisydaisy
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby daisydaisy » Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:47 pm

Thank you for those statistics- if it stops Jeremy getting in then Tory it is!
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SW11er
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby SW11er » Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:37 pm

Agreed Tory vote makes sense to me. A lot of talk of Lib Dem votes but in my mind in many cases it will only contribute to a Labour success or hung parliament at best.
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chorister
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby chorister » Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:18 pm

How depressing that people are prepared to be represented by a self serving charlatan who is a proven liar. 
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robinm
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby robinm » Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:48 am

I’m not a Corbyn lover, but Labour are offering a sensible ‘Get deal, and put it to the people’ option. LD’s revoke won’t do much for the country’s division, and the Tory’s deal is a poor one for everyone.

It looks like if you don’t want the Tories in Battersea, you need to vote Labour - anything else is a distraction.
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Ratski
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby Ratski » Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:34 am

One can only hope we get rid of Marxist Marsha the Corbyn Acolyte, watching John McDonnell on Marr this morning was almost enough to bring up my weetabix.

The undemocratic authoritarian gimp Gitsham looks like he struggles with his geography as his twitter profile pic has him outside Balham Tube stop, so that’s a non starter.

Not particularly impressed with Kim Caddy either she looks like a Soubry clone and I thought the Tories were going to clear out these ‘moderate’ types.

Definitely going to be a hold your nose and vote day.
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Astolat
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby Astolat » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:01 am

It’s a swing seat and the poster above was right that lib-Dems have no chance. Their share at the last election was 8%

Battersea Wasn’t ‘long term tory’ Martin Linton represented Battersea for labour for 13 years (‘97-2010) before Jane Ellison

Its a swing seat so our votes will count. The current prediction is a switch to Tory, which sickens me.

How any remainer can vote to quickly get that deal done & see the horror of the last few weeks played out for years as the Torres bluster and bungle the trade deal baffles me.

Not to mention the staggering lies and broken promises across the board. They are a danger to our country.
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SW11er
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby SW11er » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:17 am

But the election isn’t only about Brexit. Vote Labour and you have Corbyn for 4 yrs! Or a hung parliament.

Everyone will decide what they think is the best outcome but it just shows what a predicament we are in and how divisive Brexit has been.
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Astolat
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby Astolat » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:46 am

The chance of a straight labour win is tiny, non existent. A hung parliament sounds a good idea. Moderate the worst of both sides.

I think it was only the lack of a Tory majority that stopped a no deal brexit.

And you’re right it’s about so much more than brexit and I don’t trust Boris on any of it!

He’s promising the earth but his record in London was to fail to deliver.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck ... ndon-mayor
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juliantenniscoach
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Re: General Election - what do we think for Battersea?

Postby juliantenniscoach » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:45 am

Anyone here old enough to remember the last left wing government in the UK?

I am, and I remember 3 day weeks, public sector strikes, 20% inflation and interest rates with rocketing unemployment. No more equality then than now. I won’t be voting for Corbyn’s Labour.
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