Final YouGov poll projects Labour win in Putney

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Final YouGov poll projects Labour win in Putney

Postby Community Editor » Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:38 pm

The final YouGov election model has projected Labour will win Putney after originally predicting a lean to the Conservatives just three weeks ago.

Nationally the pollster has the Conservatives winning 339 seats, with Labour on 231 and the Liberal Democrats winning 15 seats, giving the Conservatives an overall majority of 28.

Putney has been Tory since 2005 under Justine Greening, who was very popular in the area.

But she stepped down this year, after criticising the Conservatives for “becoming the Brexit party.”

Putney voted by more than 72 per cent to remain in the EU referendum in 2017 and Ms Greening was a key figure amongst Conservative MPs who wanted to stop no deal, and even publicly backed the People’s Vote campaign for a second referendum.

Since Mrs Greening had the Conservative whip removed and stood down as MP, it has been a key target for Labour and the Liberal Democrats who want to win over ‘remain’ voters.

Labour candidate Fleur Anderson has promised she is on “a mission to remain” while Lib Dem candidate Sue Wixley has said her party is the only one committed to staying in the EU.

By contrast Conservative candidate Will Sweet has said that while he was a remainer, he wants to see the country move forward and would use his previous experience in the foreign office “to make sure we have a really good relationship with the EU”.

The 2017 election was close, with just 1,554 votes between the Conservatives and runners-up, Labour, but many were predicting a Conservative hold as the remain parties were expected to split the vote.However, Tuesday’s MRP poll [December 10] now suggests there is a lean to Labour.

The YouGov model estimates Labour will win with 40 per cent, with the Conservatives on 37 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 19 per cent, and the Greens on 4 per cent.
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But the result is within the margin of error, which will make for a tense finish.

The YouGov Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model has been seen as the poll to watch after it was more accurate than most in the last election.

It uses interviews conducted over the past seven days, combined with other data points to predict voter intentions across the country.

Co-creator of YouGov’s MRP model, Professor Ben Lauderdale, says on the pollster’s website: “The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model that relates interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions.

“This model is then used to estimate the probability that a voter with specified characteristics will vote Conservative, Labour, or some other party. Using data from the UK Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results, YouGov has estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency.

“Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allows YouGov to produce estimates of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party.

“In 2017, when we applied this strategy to the UK general election, we correctly predicted 93 per cent of individual seats as well as the overall hung parliament result.”

Source: Wandsworth Guardian
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