Wandsworth has been identified as the borough in south London most at risk of becoming a coronavirus 'hotspot', with a 45% chance over the next two weeks.
A newly developed online Covid-19 calculator has identified a number of south London boroughs, namely Wandsworth, Kingston, Richmond and Bexley, at high risk.
Devised by Imperial College London, the website predicts which parts of England and Wales have the greatest probability of seeing cases rise above 50 per 100,000, which it classes as a 'hotspot.'
The calculator has identified the most at-risk borough in south London as Wandsworth, which currently has a 3% chance of becoming a hotspot this week, but by September that will have increased to a whopping 45%. Only Kensington and Chelsea is higher within the capital.
According to the website, there is a 95% probability that the R rate in Wandsworth will have increased to be greater than 1 at that point, meaning infections will spread at an increasing rate.
The new calculator, released only this week, shows how the probability of cases exceeding 50 in a week is currently 3% as of September 4.
This rises to 22% by September 12, and by the 20th the probability of cases rising above 50 in a week is 45%.
Other at risk areas include Richmond (31%), Kingston (27%) and Bexley (17%).
Lead researcher Professor Axel Gandy, from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial, said: "COVID-19 is, unfortunately, very much still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to bring hotspots under control.
"The model allows us to project where local hotspots of COVID-19 are likely to develop in England and Wales based on the trends that we’re seeing in those areas."
The website was produced by the Department of Mathemtics, in collaboration with the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (GIDA), and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) at Imperial.
It uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to reported a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.
The site also provides estimates for each local authority in England and Wales on whether cases are likely to be increasing or decreasing in the following week and the probability of R(t) being greater than 1 in the following week.