'Covid calculator' says Wandsworth has a 45% hotspot risk

8 posts
Community Editor
Posts: 1983
Joined: Sep 2018
Options:
Share this post on:

'Covid calculator' says Wandsworth has a 45% hotspot risk

Postby Community Editor » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:02 pm

Wandsworth has been identified as the borough in south London most at risk of becoming a coronavirus 'hotspot', with a 45% chance over the next two weeks.

A newly developed online Covid-19 calculator has identified a number of south London boroughs, namely Wandsworth, Kingston, Richmond and Bexley, at high risk.

Devised by Imperial College London, the website predicts which parts of England and Wales have the greatest probability of seeing cases rise above 50 per 100,000, which it classes as a 'hotspot.'

The calculator has identified the most at-risk borough in south London as Wandsworth, which currently has a 3% chance of becoming a hotspot this week, but by September that will have increased to a whopping 45%. Only Kensington and Chelsea is higher within the capital.

According to the website, there is a 95% probability that the R rate in Wandsworth will have increased to be greater than 1 at that point, meaning infections will spread at an increasing rate.

The new calculator, released only this week, shows how the probability of cases exceeding 50 in a week is currently 3% as of September 4.

This rises to 22% by September 12, and by the 20th the probability of cases rising above 50 in a week is 45%.

Other at risk areas include Richmond (31%), Kingston (27%) and Bexley (17%).

Lead researcher Professor Axel Gandy, from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial, said: "COVID-19 is, unfortunately, very much still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to bring hotspots under control.

"The model allows us to project where local hotspots of COVID-19 are likely to develop in England and Wales based on the trends that we’re seeing in those areas."

The website was produced by the Department of Mathemtics, in collaboration with the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (GIDA), and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) at Imperial.

It uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to reported a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The site also provides estimates for each local authority in England and Wales on whether cases are likely to be increasing or decreasing in the following week and the probability of R(t) being greater than 1 in the following week.
Attachments
259230934.jpg.gallery.jpg
Post Reply
atbattersea
Posts: 236
Joined: Oct 2014
Options:
Share this post on:

Re: 'Covid calculator' says Wandsworth has a 45% hotspot risk

Postby atbattersea » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:16 pm

All those stupid, selfish people going on holiday - see the Wandsworth stats, many cases linked to international travel.
Post Reply
Luvnyrick
Posts: 53
Joined: Oct 2019
Options:
Share this post on:

Re: 'Covid calculator' says Wandsworth has a 45% hotspot risk

Postby Luvnyrick » Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:04 pm

A absolutely agree with you.a coronavirus hotspot is that why BJ s going to !et football fans in the stadium can't be that bad still all we here is it's bad then it's not people will still be walking around with there muzzles on dodging other people it's all tosh !!
Post Reply
coffeepod
Posts: 9
Joined: Apr 2020
Options:
Share this post on:

Re: 'Covid calculator' says Wandsworth has a 45% hotspot risk

Postby coffeepod » Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:19 am

This is really worrying. I do get the feeling that it is business as usual here unless you get take some form of transport or go into a shop when you have to wear a mask. Restaurants and bars seems to be operating almost normally which I guess is part of the problem? Take care everyone.
Post Reply
Lulubear
Posts: 88
Joined: Mar 2013
Options:
Share this post on:

Re: 'Covid calculator' says Wandsworth has a 45% hotspot risk

Postby Lulubear » Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:56 am

I am somewhat worried about the lax 'track and trace' rules  With children back in school it will tighten up a bit since they can't go to school with a continuous cough without getting a negative test result.  However, I have seen people breaking the rules where it can't be so easily monitored (e.g. back from holiday but not isolating for two weeks when they should have done, parents not taking a Covid test when they have a cough because they don't want their children to miss school etc!.  So unfortunately, it will spread more because not everyone is following the rules after coming back from holiday on planes from hotspots likely to include one or more people who were covid positive!
Post Reply
Luvnyrick
Posts: 53
Joined: Oct 2019
Options:
Share this post on:

Re: 'Covid calculator' says Wandsworth has a 45% hotspot risk

Postby Luvnyrick » Tue Sep 08, 2020 2:24 pm

This is the problem if you develop a cough cold headache or any type of mild illness people get terrified no point going to a GP that's if your lucky enough they will only put you down has having covid 19 children adults everyone have all had bad case of colds in our life now it's get tested it's about time the truth came out all scaramungaling tosh 
Post Reply
Needcoffeenow
Posts: 45
Joined: Jan 2017
Options:
Share this post on:

Re: 'Covid calculator' says Wandsworth has a 45% hotspot risk

Postby Needcoffeenow » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:11 am

Luvnyrick, I’m not sure I really understood that. Could you explain it again for us?
Post Reply
ANGRY GRANNY
Options:
Share this post on:

Re: 'Covid calculator' says Wandsworth has a 45% hotspot risk

Postby ANGRY GRANNY » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:36 pm

Its not only the young people who think they have the right to be selfish, they are after all young. The measure of a civilised society is a society who cares for its most vulnerable members. In this case the grandparents, who will shortly become unable to be the fall guys for childcare.

I am trying to not be come a state burden and exercise by walking daily on our lovely Common. Every morning, joggers of all ages puff and huff their germs coming too close, (I have endured their sweat dripping onto my legs on more than one occasion) either from behind or pushing past on the bridge, head phones rendering them deliberately and wilfully deaf to any protest of social distancing.

Cyclists , families of them, including parents who should be teaching their children respectful behaviour refuse to dismount on the bridge as the bye law demands, or ride fast on the no-cycle paths

Worst of all, because they should know better but do so just because they can, are the well educated (sadly) usually ladies aged 30-50, who chat in groups, blocking both pathways at the foot of the railway bridge and outside the cafe blocking the pathway to the games field, and never allowing passage through.

Kids need their grandparents... so can we go back to social distancing on Wandsworth Common
Post Reply