Theresa May is a shoo in for new PM and she has insisted that Brexit means Brexit, despite being in the remain camp pre referendum. So alas, yes, I think it will happen. We can all live in hope that she will go into negotiations, realise that they're making a poster child of us to discourage other members from following that same path by offering us terrible terms and decide not to invoke article 50. (Maybe that's just wishful thinking from me)

I've been following the excellent jackofkent blog which has some excellent posts on the legal process around triggering article 50 (http://jackofkent.com)

1. The referendum was non-binding and advisory it is really just a glorified opinion poll.

2. The majority of MPs backed Remain. Unless many have changed their view based on this result then that will still be the case. I don't see how the necessary legislation can be passed.

3. There is a case at the High Court raised by Deir Dos Santos to clarify how a notification should be made. In my view this should only be done after parliamentary scrutiny.

4. Since we are a represtative democracy MPs should respect the views of their constituents over a flawed non-binding referendum.

5. Although a second referendum has been ruled out the 4 million+ signatures give a very clear view of areas with a strong pro-remain feeling. Many of these are Conservative seat.

http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.co ... ion=131215

The Conservative party must be deeply divided by this result since there is a strong possibility of losing seats where the allegiance to the party is not strong enough to overcome the anti-EU rhetoric (ask Zac!)

At the moment it's difficult to see how it can be avoided. So I tend to think it will happen but as Herculesmum says slowly. Although perhaps the end result won't be too different to how we are now, just packaged differently and likely more expensive with less control.

Julientennis coach, I think it will happen albiet very slow.

Just as a straw poll, I was wondering how many of you think that the full Brexit will happen? That is withdrawl from the EU and renegotiation for trade and movement of people? Personally I think no (but it's a guess!).

I tend to agree it's a bit after the event to say the parameters of the referendum were wrong. Although for what it's worth I think they probably were. This wasn't a general election where we vote someone in for 5 years and if they do a bit of a crap job we get another go at the next election. This was a referendum with a permanent and long (forever?) lasting result. For that reason it might have been sensible to base the decision on more than one poll with such a close result. I do think it was close despite your best efforts to present the results otherwise bookymummy. Nor do I think we can just simply say 'all politicians lie' to vindicate what the leave campaign have done. Never can I recall an election where the winning party admitted their two key policy promises (money to the NHS and control on immigration) were dropped within, what was it, 24 hours?! It was astounding. Nor is it typical for the 'winners' to jump ship in the way we've seen. If I was a leave voter (it's probably obvious by now I wasn't) I think I'd be a bit hacked off with the sh*t show which is the remnants of the Leave campaign. Although it's become very clear to me that BoJo and Farage will be the first to complain when the brexit dream implodes by blaming it on the poor sod (May?) who actually has to try and deliver it.

The people who have voted for Brexit will suffer its consequences most.

Those EU migrants who have been in the U.K. for any meaningful period, i.e. more than 3-4 years, and their children will be in demand because they will have both a U.K. and an EU passport and thus able to work flexibly for employers. It is those who only have a U.K. passport who have shot themselves in the foot with the vote to leave the EU.

The New York Times has an article today describing how voters in Wigan voted to leave the EU. It doesn't reflect particularly well on them. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/06/world ... oters.html

As regards the referendum itself, I am a believer in democracy even where the electorate makes the wrong decision. However, it was deeply unfair that people who arrived in the U.K. last year from Nigeria, Pakistan or New Zealand could vote whereas people who have lived in the U.K. for 10-15 years and come from Germany, Italy or Spain could not.

GuyD73,
Yes, I did observe Phigoldenspirals comments. However, the reason I did not comment is that I have a big problem with concerns such as these being aired after, rather than before, the event.

As I recall, the Referendum, and it's various issues, were discussed, virtually ad nauseum, in just about every conceivable medium for months before the Referendum.
In addition every household in the country was targeted, at the tax-payers expense, with pro-remain Government 'information' seeking to influence (unfairly?) the outcome of the vote. I do not recall one single piece of information discussing the legitimacy or legality of the proposed ballot, not one. Nor did I witness any Remainers protesting pre-ballot or refusing to participate on the basis that they questioned the validity of the process. Taking part and voting surely means, by definition, that you accept the terms and conditions of the deal? Presumably participating Remainers felt, either in blind faith or arrogance or both, that they had it in the bag, and that therefore no complaint would be necessary?

As for being misled or making the wrong choice, well that's not particularly new. Many governments, including Mr Cameron's, have introduced legislation that was not specifically mentioned in pre-election manifestos. And are you seriously trying to suggest that politicians tell the truth? I think you'll find that many if not most of the voting public are fairly sainguine about that! This is the first time in my fairly long voting lifetime that I am aware of the losing side seeking to overthrow an election result. Many people felt and still do feel that they were misled in the original Referendum to join the EU or the 'Common Market' as it was then, and it's taken 40+ years to overthrow that outcome!

Finally, I really do have to question this statistical myth of the 'slim' majority. If we look at the actual statistics of the vote, 9 of 12 of the UK regions voted to leave. In those 9 the average turnout was 73%, with some areas as high as 77%. In many of the Leave areas the vote to leave was >75%. By contrast the turnout in the 3 Remain areas (and there were only 3) was 66.5%. Maybe the only thing we can take from this is that Mr Cameron wasted tax payers money sending out his pro-remain propaganda? I would also suggest that these figures call into question the idea that 'most young people voted Remain', as it's hard to believe that the majority population in these Leave areas are elderly/older people. This 'assertion' though seems to be based on the Polls and we all know how accurate they were, eh?

Hi Mungomuffit, hope you're well
I wasn't suggesting by any stretch that everyone was mislead, just that it seems a significant number (1m+ by some polls) felt they were and I feel that calls into question the legitimacy of the vote...

I'm not sure if you or any others reading this can shed any light on this? I'd be grateful for any advice and please forgive any stupidity this question might expose!

When the next leader of the conservatives tables the vote to repeal the European Communities Act and trigger article 50, are MPs obliged to listen to anything other then their conscience when voting? Obviously the tory manifesto was to 'abide by' the result of that referendum but given the 'dishonesty on an industrial scale' (quote from that constitutional lawyer's video that's gone viral) that characterised the vote, and if the MP felt the legitimacy of the result was compromised, could they not vote it down? How about other MPs from other parties, are their loyalties not to their constituents rather than in support of this very slim 4% margin national majority vote?

Top post Braintrainer.

As Philgoldenspiral rightly pointed out "We live in a representative democracy. This means that the general public vote in people who have the time, education, and mandate to inform themselves of very complex issues that will determine the best course of action. "

The "European Union Referendum Act 2015 " was an act of parliament passed specifically to allow the referendum and agree its terms. This act was passed by the House of Commons and the House of Lords, I.e those who have the time, education and mandate to inform themselves on the complex issue and decide the correct course of action. They chose to let the people of the United Kingdom vote on the decision.

I am a huge believer in democracy even if I don't really like the end result. Had the leave camp won, I suspect those complaining the loudest now would have been the first to point out the democratic merits of the referendum to any complaining Brexiters.

I personally do not judge anyone however they voted because it is a very personal decision. I also think making disparaging remarks about people who voted one way or the other is unhelpful and unnecessary.

Being from Australia, where we have compulsory voting, I was surprised that this referendum didn't require all adults to cast their vote, and perhaps that would have changed the end result…but perhaps it would have made no difference at all.

Great post @phigoldenspiral, you've nailed more or less all the important issues there.
Bookymummy, you make some fair points, not least that privileged SW London dwellers will struggle to put ourselves in the shoes of the disenfranchised in the north of the country, and we should certainly not be calling anyone stupid. However, I notice you don't respond in any way to the 4 points phigoldenspiral makes?
Notwithstanding the fact that this referendum was criminally ill-conceived, in the sense that it was devoid of any sensible checks and balances to ensure that it didn't result in... ' irreversible changes based on a razor-thin minority that might prevail only during a brief window of emotion', now that we are where we are, point 3 is key.
To my mind a large number of people voted leave on the basis of what subsequently proved to outright lies and consequently large numbers appear to regret how they voted. How many votes this applies to we can never be sure, but we can be fairly sure this removes any legitimacy whatsoever from the result. It also calls into question the moral obligation of MPs not to back up this result when they vote. Given the dishonest circumstances of this vote, MPs responsibilities should now be to represent their constituents wishes. To that end, we should all be putting as much pressure as possible on our MPs. I will be posting some suggested drafts in the near future, as well as some of the responses so far and would urge everyone horrified by this result not to give up. It really is far from over....

I went to bed on 23rd June with the expectation that the ‘Remain’ campaign would win marginally, even though I was thought it was unfairly influenced by the establishment machine.

So I voted Leave, but I was quite prepared to wake up on the 24th with a ‘Remain’ result, accept it and move on.

What I notice on this and other forums is people who are disappointed with the result posting self-righteous, pseudo-intellectually superior, and judgemental /offensive comments.

For the record, I think the EU is a great idea, I think peace, harmony, cosmopolitanism, free trade are good aspirations.

But I think the EU is broken. It is undemocratic, ridiculously bureaucratic, and at this stage is an experiment that has so far failed.

Of course different people have different views on this – 80% to 20% in favour of Remain to Leave if you look at the Nappy Valley poll.

One of the things that make us different is attitude to risk. I’ve spent my whole career doing things that have never been done before, so I embrace change as opportunity.

I can understand how change can be scary to some people, but it doesn’t make me or others ‘idiots’; the last time I had my IQ tested formally it was 158 – officially a genius.

There is clearly a division in the country following the referendum result and the politicians who move this forward need to recognise that and devise strategies to address this.

Personally I am enthused by the opportunity for the UK to carve out its own destiny in the world, and as part of the world, unconstrained by membership of the EU.

I don’t believe this needs to mean our children can’t study in foreign universities, work in overseas bars, that current EU residents need to return home, or that free trade agreements are impossible.

Is it complex ? Yes.
Is it scary ? Yes.
Is it uncertain ? Yes.
Is it STUPID/IDIOTIC ? I don’t think so.

Signed in my personal capacity – the business doesn’t have a position on this.

Stuart Black


P.S. I wasn’t impressed with Cameron’s performance before or during the campaign, and in November last year the Telegraph printed a letter I wrote concerned about his negotiating strategy: https://www.dropbox.com/s/p6cwjj5hjfpgc8l/Letter to Telegraph 110615.jpg?dl=0

Pie81, that is in fact just the problem, not the solution!
Huge numbers of very low wage/black market workers add very little (usually nothing) to the tax base, because they earn too little to pay tax, yet still access schools, housing, GPs, NHS etc. All problems felt most acutely outside of metropolitan elites-ville.
In effect, the UK tax-payer subsidises the profits of large companies by paying tax-credits, so that the company can pay slave-labour wages. It's a scam, and it's encouraged by the political elites who are often beholden to big corporations & companies for party donations.